Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 28.755966 30.744359 32.890066 35.393786 38.256203 41.452858 45.330713
2025-12-14 25.141508 27.583115 30.346615 33.750173 37.893925 42.866233 49.435006
2025-12-21 23.666087 26.431550 29.668433 33.815726 39.113879 45.850642 55.428082
2025-12-28 22.724068 25.758633 29.412511 34.257847 40.722411 49.404231 62.687904
2026-01-04 21.453399 24.557802 28.367195 33.539037 40.653601 50.598258 66.700333
2026-01-11 20.964536 24.272047 28.421483 34.215498 42.490645 54.660479 75.916441
2026-01-18 20.402728 23.842985 28.238976 34.525233 43.801750 58.086041 84.914969
2026-01-25 19.564037 23.002139 27.448630 33.908838 43.656586 59.158548 89.875822
2026-02-01 18.783505 22.195762 26.653310 33.216755 43.310706 59.823287 94.179303
2026-02-08 17.802890 21.083377 25.387720 31.763221 41.652078 58.038347 92.918265
2026-02-15 17.628878 21.035677 25.574230 32.436830 43.407165 62.450749 106.631394
2026-02-22 17.518278 21.063405 25.859658 33.268032 45.494367 67.828719 125.178342
2026-03-01 16.919530 20.474779 25.348308 33.015977 46.032242 70.949861 141.715529
2026-03-08 16.019730 19.438192 24.150173 31.621941 44.461033 69.554737 144.268901
2026-03-15 15.615192 19.066221 23.884798 31.667932 45.437798 73.760419 169.239265
2026-03-22 15.340764 18.860092 23.844477 32.063823 47.100739 79.981010 210.902214
2026-03-29 14.817972 18.276762 23.208782 31.423470 46.701615 81.167485 231.913184
2026-04-05 14.648365 18.190026 23.312260 32.025758 48.817293 89.434539 315.033074
2026-04-12 14.410667 17.992265 23.231956 32.301116 50.308266 96.639735 429.300821
2026-04-19 13.997647 17.521682 22.705399 31.752881 49.981858 98.376247 503.415233
2026-04-26 13.593935 17.051531 22.159905 31.136281 49.439561 99.318652 581.451468
2026-05-03 13.056573 16.369554 21.259225 29.837660 47.280206 94.518896 535.079558
2026-05-10 12.971051 16.354143 21.407623 30.440091 49.431210 104.910781 980.201704